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Core Summary
The KOSDAQ index has surpassed the 1170 mark, officially kicking off the first-quarter earnings season.
This week's earnings calendar focuses on growth stocks with solid fundamentals, such as IT components and aesthetic medical devices.
Amidst synchronization with the global tech rally, there is speculation that domestic policy momentum could drive the rise of earnings-driven stocks.
However, cautious approaches are necessary as profit-taking may occur around earnings announcements, leading to an intense sorting of winners and losers.
Current Situation Summary
As of the close on April 17, 2026, the KOSDAQ index recorded 1170.04, and the USD/KRW exchange rate maintained a high level of 1485.20 KRW.
The KOSPI closed at 6191.92, and the NASDAQ at 24102.70, showing a clear overall market recovery.
According to Daily Stock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index, the NASDAQ is currently in the Greed (62.2) phase, a sharp reversal from Fear (36.6) a week ago, Fear (20.7) a month ago, and Extreme Fear (16.1) three months ago.
Conversely, the KOSPI Fear & Greed Index is currently at a Neutral (58.3) level, showing a somewhat calmed trend compared to the Extreme Greed (91) range three months ago, having passed Neutral (54) a week ago and Fear (36.1) a month ago.
Financial Analysis
Even among KOSDAQ growth stocks, the bio and secondary battery sectors are expected to present mixed Q1 earnings guidance by stock.
On the other hand, IT component and AI software-related companies are attracting market attention based on solid earnings foundations.
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In particular, the EV/EBITDA multiples of semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment companies are gradually stabilizing downward, enhancing their earnings appeal.
For some theme stocks unsupported by actual earnings, the ongoing burden of high PSR (Price-to-Sales Ratio) leaves room for increased stock price volatility as earnings announcement dates approach.
Valuation
Large-cap stocks included in the KOSDAQ150 index have proven stable profit generation capabilities, entering a phase that justifies their current valuation premiums.
In contrast, small and mid-cap stocks in the KOSDAQ Small index are experiencing valuation discounts as they remain relatively neglected in terms of supply and demand.
| Category | KOSDAQ150 (Large-cap focus) | KOSDAQ Small (Small/Mid-cap focus) | Q1 Earnings Momentum Features |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation Level | Growth premium maintained and justified | Relative undervaluation due to neglected supply and demand | Dominance of IT component and aesthetic device sectors |
| Core Financial Indicators | Downward stabilization trend in EV/EBITDA | Thematic volatility based on high PSR | Strict sorting based on fundamentals |
| Market Supply & Demand Trends | Inflow of institutional/foreign program net buying | Short-term thematic trading centered on retail investors | Beware of rapid profit-taking around announcement dates |
This earnings season is a crucial testing ground where each company must prove the validity of the valuation granted to it by the market.
As a result, it is highly likely that buying interest will concentrate solely on companies with confirmed earnings turnarounds.
Expert and Institutional Analysis
Institutional and foreign investors are operating program trading centered on KOSDAQ150 stocks, seeking to mechanically increase their weightings.
While retail deposits maintain a certain level, margin loan balances are also rapidly increasing, raising concerns that this could act as a detonator for short-term supply and demand.
Market experts evaluate the FX gain effects for companies with a high export proportion as positive momentum, considering the current situation where the exchange rate has reached 1485.20 KRW.
Additionally, they are presenting a scenario where institutional funds may continuously flow into the medical device and AI software sectors, which align with the government's policy momentum.
Risk Factors
Amid a high-interest-rate environment that shows little sign of resolution, the high exchange rate level could hit the profit margins of companies heavily reliant on imported raw materials.
Furthermore, if earnings guidance falls below expectations while margin loan balances are highly accumulated, there is a significant risk of strong profit-taking sell-offs.
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For low-liquidity stocks, supply and demand imbalances can maximize intraday bid-ask gaps and gap volatility, requiring special caution.
In particular, the probability of a typical 'buy the rumor, sell the news' herding phenomenon occurring right after earnings announcements cannot be ruled out.
Investment Perspective
The current mood in the KOSDAQ market requires a conservative approach of thoroughly verifying earnings figures rather than blindly chasing theme stocks.
It may be an effective strategy to carefully check this week's earnings calendar and take a split-accumulation approach to IT component stocks with a high probability of an earnings surprise.
The core task is to discover overlapping companies that can simultaneously enjoy the NASDAQ synchronization phenomenon and domestic policy momentum.
Instead of vague expectations, an attitude of ensuring thorough risk management based on verified financial indicators is necessary.
Investment Checklist
Q1. What are the core leading sectors currently driving the KOSDAQ market?
A1. IT components, such as semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment, which are strongly expected to show favorable Q1 earnings, and export-driven medical and aesthetic device sectors are standing out.
Q2. What is the impact of the NASDAQ index trend on the KOSDAQ?
A2. Due to a strong synchronization with tech stocks, KOSDAQ growth stocks are reacting very sensitively to the flow of the NASDAQ Fear & Greed Index (currently Greed 62.2).
Q3. Which direction is more advantageous between the KOSDAQ150 and KOSDAQ Small indices?
A3. As foreign and institutional program buying is currently concentrated on the KOSDAQ150, a large-cap-oriented approach is relatively safer from a supply and demand perspective.
Q4. What does the increase in retail investors' margin loan balances mean for the market?
A4. It means that leveraged pending volume is accumulating, which is a factor that amplifies the risk of stock price gap volatility due to short-term profit-taking or forced liquidation after earnings announcements.
Q5. What is the most important thing to be careful of when facing this week's earnings calendar?
A5. Considering the 1485.20 KRW exchange rate and concerns over prolonged high interest rates, it should be noted that companies revising their future earnings guidance downward could face strong selling pressure.