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Core Summary
As global big tech companies' artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investments recently expand into physical AI, Samsung Electronics is facing a rush of demands for long-term agreements (LTAs) for memory lasting more than three years.
Accordingly, analysis suggests that major memory volumes are effectively sold out until 2027, and a positive scenario aiming for 220,000 KRW is emerging in the securities industry.
Particularly in the historic bull market where the KOSPI has surpassed the 5,900 mark, the concentration on large-cap semiconductor stocks is strongly leading the index's rise.
Evaluations indicate that supply and demand are focusing on large-cap blue chips that have secured stable earnings visibility, entering the early stages of a valuation re-rating phase.
Current Situation Summary
Today (March 19, 2026), the KOSPI index recorded 5,925.03 and the KOSDAQ index 1,164.38, continuing an unprecedented rally.
The NASDAQ index also settled at 22,152.42, but there is a distinct difference in the perceived temperature of investors looking at the two markets.
| Index | Current (2026-03-19) | 1 Week Ago | 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | Neutral (45.8) | Fear (30.9) | Neutral (57.0) | Neutral (41.5) |
| NASDAQ | Extreme Fear (18.2) | Fear (25.1) | Neutral (41.9) | Fear (22.2) |
※ Daily Stock's Fear & Greed Index (0~100, 0=Extreme Fear, 100=Extreme Greed)
The KRW/USD exchange rate has soared to 1,503.00 KRW, sustaining a high exchange rate environment, but foreigners and institutions are betting on the earnings momentum of Korean large-cap semiconductor stocks rather than the exchange rate burden.
In this macroeconomic environment, foreign futures buying is concentrated on KOSPI large caps, strongly supporting the bottom of the index.
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Financial Analysis
According to the latest analyses from major securities firms, considering Samsung Electronics' limited production capacity, the memory semiconductor supply shortage is highly likely to prolong until 2030.
This year, DRAM and NAND flash prices are expected to surge by over 148% and 111% year-on-year, respectively, and a significant earnings surprise is also anticipated for Q1 operating profits.
Long-term agreements (LTAs) of three years or more with big tech companies are key drivers that go beyond short-term price increases to simultaneously enhance future earnings visibility and profit stability.
Consequently, this order structure can serve as a financial foundation that reduces the volatility of the memory cycle and guarantees overwhelming cash generation capabilities over a long period.
Valuation
Boosted by the industry recovery and prospects of a profit surge, Nomura Securities and KB Securities have recently raised Samsung Electronics' target prices to the 300,000 KRW range or higher in succession.
Having broken through the stock price previously considered a psychological resistance line, achieving 220,000 KRW seems to have entered a realistic scenario trajectory reflecting LTA-based profit fundamentals, moving beyond mere expectations.
However, with market supply and demand extremely skewed only towards KOSPI 200 large-cap stocks, the relative valuation gap with KOSDAQ small and mid-cap stocks has widened to a historical high.
Whether foreign supply and demand will spread to the small and mid-cap value chains in the future or the large-cap dominance system will solidify is the major variable that will determine the valuation expansion of the overall market.
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Expert & Institutional Analysis
Market experts diagnose that trillions of won in joint net buying from institutions and foreigners are pouring into the top two semiconductor stocks, which account for over 40% of the KOSPI's market capitalization.
Analyses also suggest that the government-led will to stabilize the capital market and foreigners' trust in the Corporate Value-up Program are leading to the granting of premiums to large-cap blue chips.
However, despite the favorable export-driven macroeconomic indicators, there are concerns about polarization, where the market's warmth is confined only to the highest-tier stock groups.
Ultimately, for global liquidity to additionally flow into the Korean stock market, clear signs of earnings improvement must be confirmed in other flagship industries besides semiconductors.
Risk Factors
The biggest potential risk is the direction of the KRW/USD exchange rate, which has exceeded the 1,500 KRW level, and the subsequent possibility of an exodus of foreign supply and demand.
If geopolitical instability in the Middle East prolongs and oil prices spike, inflation pressures could once again spark concerns about a broader global macroeconomic slowdown.
Additionally, the fact that the Bank of Korea's benchmark interest rate cut could be delayed to defend the exchange rate is also a factor limiting the expansion of liquidity in the domestic stock market.
In the end, whether the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy speed synchronizes with domestic export indicators is expected to be the core macroeconomic variable determining the success or failure of the 220,000 KRW scenario.
Investment Perspective Summary
Armed with the memory shortage phenomenon that will last until 2030 and solid long-term agreements (LTAs) with big tech, Samsung Electronics is challenging a new valuation level.
The 220,000 KRW scenario, which has settled into the market, will materialize its realization speed depending on future macroeconomic variables and the sustainability of global AI data center investments.
Given the steep rise in the index in the short term, a strategy of approaching while confirming fundamental changes seems more valid than blind trend-chasing purchases.
Investors must closely track foreign futures trading trends and export indicators driven by exchange rate volatility, responding to market flows with a long-term perspective.
Investment Checklist
- **Assess the sustainability of foreign/institutional supply and demand:** Even after surpassing the KOSPI 5,900 mark, is the joint net buying trend towards large-cap semiconductor stocks maintained without faltering?
- **Check the direction of the KRW/USD exchange rate:** Is there any risk that the high exchange rate phase recording 1,503 KRW will act as an excuse for foreign profit-taking?
- **Confirmation of Long-Term Agreements (LTA):** Are public disclosures or related details of memory supply contracts lasting more than three years between Samsung Electronics and global IT big tech confirmed in the market?
- **Macroeconomic and geopolitical risks:** What is the impact of changes in Middle East conflicts or major countries' interest rate policies on global stock market sentiment and IT device demand?
- **Resolution of polarization between large-caps and small/mid-caps:** Is there a possibility that funds concentrated on KOSPI 200 large-cap semiconductors will cyclically rotate into materials, parts, and equipment (SoBuJang) or KOSDAQ small and mid-cap stocks in the future?