Hello, this is DailyStock, analyzing the intersection of global macro and earnings data.
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Key Takeaways
This week's earnings calendar serves as the first gateway to gauge the direction of the Q1 2026 earnings season.
This is a period of heightened volatility in global stock markets, driven by extreme fear sentiment in the Nasdaq and a surge in raw material prices such as copper.
The key point to watch this week is how the fundamental decoupling of the US, Europe, and Asia will be proven through companies' actual financial statements.
Investors need to focus on selecting companies that can defend their margins amidst high exchange rates and inflationary pressures.
Current Situation Summary
As of 04:04 (KST) on April 2, 2026, during intraday trading (provisional), the Nasdaq index is at 21,961.06, and the USD/KRW exchange rate has soared to 1,511.70.
KOSPI is trading at 5,478.70 and KOSDAQ at 1,116.18, exposed to the volatility of foreign supply and demand due to the high exchange rate.
According to DailyStock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index, the Nasdaq is currently in a state of 'Extreme Fear' (14.4), with investor sentiment cooling sharply from neutral (41.2) a month ago.
On the other hand, the KOSPI Fear & Greed Index currently records 'Fear' (32.4), testing relative downside resilience compared to the US stock market [1].
Global macroeconomic indicators show a distinct difference in temperature by region.
The recently announced US manufacturing PMI maintained its expansion phase at 52.4, while concerns over a slowdown in demand persist in Europe and parts of Asia [2].
Financial Analysis
The earnings of early reporting companies announced this week clearly reflect macroeconomic decoupling.
According to the April 1st announcement by the US multinational food company Lamb Weston, sales in North America grew by 5%, while overseas operations, including Europe, were sluggish [3].
This is an example showing that while the US consumer market remains resilient, the European market is caught in a structural dilemma of shrinking demand.
In the Asian region, the upcoming preliminary earnings announcement from Samsung Electronics is expected to confirm the fundamentals of the semiconductor industry and the export-driven economy [1].
Commodity inflation is a variable that can directly hit companies' operating profit margins in Q1.
With rising copper and oil prices acting as cost burdens, the ability to pass this on to consumer prices through 'Pricing Power' is highly likely to widen the gap in financial performance among companies.
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Valuation
The current Extreme Fear index of the Nasdaq can be interpreted as a process of resolving the accumulated overvaluation burden centered on AI and tech stocks.
As the Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER), which had exceeded historical averages, undergoes a correction, valuation justification will be reassessed based on this Q1 earnings guidance.
| Category | Key Fundamental Characteristics | Valuation Attractiveness & Risk Factors |
|---|---|---|
| **US Stock Market** | Maintaining manufacturing PMI expansion, solid consumption | Presence of valuation premium, risk of widened downside on earnings miss |
| **European Stock Market** | Persistent weak demand, ECB monetary policy dilemma | Undervaluation centered on traditional cyclicals, lack of growth momentum |
| **Asian Stock Market** | Recovery led by IT/export stocks, direct hit from raw materials | Benefits and supply-demand anxiety from the high exchange rate of 1,511 KRW, Japan's interest rate hike risk |
This tri-polar valuation environment is complicating the global movement path of investment funds.
If the premium on US stocks shrinks, a scenario where liquidity partially shifts to Asian blue-chip stocks that are excessively discounted relative to their fundamentals cannot be ruled out.
Expert and Institutional Analysis
Major global investment banks have recently diagnosed the commodity supercycle, including copper, as a key driver of the stock market in 2026.
Citigroup and J.P. Morgan projected that copper prices will surpass $12,000 per ton in 2026 due to the expansion of AI data centers and surging power grid demand [4].
On the macroeconomic policy front, the US dollar's strength continues as expectations for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are being adjusted.
Conversely, with the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) cautious interest rate normalization and the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) accommodative stance combined, Asian currency values are under overall structural pressure.
Experts advise paying attention to how often the terms 'supply chain disruption' and 'cost increase' are mentioned in the conference calls of companies included in this week's earnings calendar.
If the phenomenon of the macro environment eating into individual companies' earnings estimates becomes visible, there is a possibility that the market's fear sentiment will persist for a while.
Risk Factors
The most imminent risk is the concern over supply chain disruptions coupled with geopolitical instability.
Physical supply bottlenecks, such as the suspension of operations at major mines in Latin America, are fueling a cascading surge in copper and raw material prices [5].
The high USD/KRW exchange rate, reaching 1,511.70, stimulates Asian import prices and can seriously damage the profitability of domestic demand-oriented companies.
From the perspective of foreign investors, there is also a risk that growing concerns over foreign exchange losses could lead to an outflow of supply and demand from emerging market stocks.
Additionally, as the Nasdaq has entered the extreme fear zone of 14.4, one should be mindful that a 'tantrum' selling spree, where the market overreacts to even minor bad news, may emerge.
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Investment Perspective Summary
This week's earnings calendar goes beyond simply confirming corporate profits; it is a venue to verify the ripple effects of rising raw material prices and high exchange rates on the real economy.
Investors may need a conservative approach, prioritizing the assessment of companies' margin defense capabilities rather than indiscriminate dip buying.
As the fundamental decoupling of the US, Europe, and Asia deepens, it is worth focusing on companies that play essential roles within the global value chain rather than betting on specific country indices.
Ultimately, a strategy of appropriately managing the cash proportion in the portfolio and preparing for upcoming macro volatility could be effective.
DailyStock Q&A
Q1. What is the most important global macro indicator to watch in this week's earnings calendar?
A1. The US employment indicators and manufacturing PMI details announced alongside earnings. These will serve as a standard to judge whether the US economy's solo boom will be maintained or if signs of an economic slowdown, such as a reduction in corporate hiring, will appear.
Q2. The Nasdaq is at an 'extreme fear' level; is now the right time to buy?
A2. Just because the Fear & Greed Index shows an extreme figure of 14.4 does not mean an unconditional rebound. It may be relatively safer to approach after confirming whether major Big Tech companies lower their Q1 earnings guidance.
Q3. What is the specific impact of surging copper prices on the stock market?
A3. Rising copper prices are traditionally read as a signal of economic expansion, but currently, they are the result of AI power grid demand intertwined with mine supply disruptions. It can be beneficial for wire and infrastructure-related companies, but it acts as a negative factor of rising costs for the overall manufacturing sector.
Q4. What strategy is needed for the Korean stock market in the high exchange rate situation of 1,511 KRW?
A4. A rising exchange rate has the effect of increasing the KRW-converted profits of export companies, but it is simultaneously fatal for companies with high dependence on imported raw materials. Therefore, the perspective of selecting mainly high-value-added export stocks that can fully enjoy the exchange rate benefits is discussed.
Q5. Is there no possibility of a rebound for the European stock market in the US-Europe-Asia tri-polar decoupling situation?
A5. Europe's consumer goods and luxury sectors are currently taking a hit due to a structure heavily dependent on China's domestic economy. However, since valuations are at historic lows, a rebound scenario can be considered if the ECB's preemptive rate cuts or China's stimulus measures take effect in the future.