Hello, this is Daily Stock. Amidst a highly volatile market, we analyze the core earnings momentum of KOSPI large-cap and equipment stocks based on objective data.
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Core Summary
Recently, the KOSPI has seen strong selling pressure across the semiconductor sector due to the overlap of Google's 'TurboQuant' algorithm shock and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
However, actual fundamentals are showing a record boom, with South Korea's semiconductor exports for March 1-20, 2026, surging 163.9% year-on-year to reach $18.7 billion.
In particular, major semiconductor equipment stocks, led by Hanmi Semiconductor, have secured strong mid- to long-term earnings visibility in line with TSMC's $56 billion capital expenditure (CAPEX) plan for 2026.
Current Situation Summary
As of the close on March 27, 2026, the KOSPI index recorded 5,438.87 and the KOSDAQ 1,141.51, with a heavy wait-and-see attitude spread across the market.
With the KRW/USD exchange rate soaring to 1,506.50 KRW, an unfavorable environment for foreign supply and demand was created, and investor sentiment contracted significantly as the NASDAQ index hovered at 21,408.08.
According to Daily Stock's own Fear & Greed Index, the KOSPI is currently in the 'Fear' (27.1) stage, rapidly cooling from 'Greed' (63) a month ago, while the NASDAQ indicates 'Extreme Fear' (18.2).
Concerns over slowing memory demand were raised as Google announced 'TurboQuant,' which increases data processing efficiency by six times. However, the leverage effect on export stocks due to the high exchange rate and expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of Korea are supporting the downside.
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Financial Analysis
Hanmi Semiconductor, considered the bellwether of KOSPI semiconductor equipment stocks, achieved its highest-ever earnings since its founding, recording consolidated sales of 576.7 billion KRW and operating profit of 251.4 billion KRW in 2025.
This is analyzed as the result of firmly maintaining its overwhelming global market share (71.2%) in TC bonders for HBM manufacturing amid the explosive growth of the global AI semiconductor market.
Furthermore, in 2026, new orders for 'Wide TC Bonders' are expected to strongly drive revenue growth in line with Micron's upward revision of its total capital expenditure ($20 billion) and the full-scale mass production of HBM4 and HBM5.
Meanwhile, KOSDAQ equipment stock HPSP, which is promoting back-end process diversification, is also expected to see a clear earnings turnaround in 2026, boosted by major foundry companies' expanding investments in advanced processes.
| Company Name | 2025 Earnings (Sales / Operating Profit) | 2026 Key Momentum | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hanmi Semiconductor | Sales 576.7B KRW / OP 251.4B KRW | Launch of Wide TC Bonder for HBM4/HBM5 | #1 in global TC Bonder market share |
| HPSP | Recovery after temporary slump in Q3 2025 | Advanced process investment & back-end annealing diversification | Business expansion with new CEO recruitment |
| TSMC (Reference) | Earnings surprise in Q4 2025 | $56B CAPEX execution in 2026 | Leading global AI semiconductor infrastructure |
Valuation
In the current strong-dollar phase of the 1,500 KRW level, KOSPI 200 large-caps, particularly the semiconductor value chain, are evaluated to have entered an attractive relative valuation range compared to past cycles.
Although HBM-related equipment stocks plummeted in the short term due to the recent Google AI algorithm shock, this is more characteristic of a multiple contraction caused by macro uncertainty rather than fundamental damage.
As global semiconductor equipment stocks like Applied Materials in the U.S. have solid fundamentals, it is time for major domestic equipment stocks to highlight their undervaluation appeal compared to their global peers.
The surge in semiconductor exports and the increase in semiconductor equipment import value (up 10.4%) confirmed in the March Korea Customs Service data will likely wash away concerns about an earnings decoupling between large-caps and small/mid-caps, supporting a multiple expansion across the KOSPI semiconductor sector.
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Expert & Institutional Analysis
Market experts diagnose that the recent geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with the Google TurboQuant issue, induced massive net selling of spot stocks by foreign investors.
However, major securities firms predict that the earnings forecasts for equipment stocks will be revised upward as key foundry players, centered in the U.S., resume full-scale investments in advanced processes in 2026.
Additionally, while the high exchange rate in the 1,500 KRW range is stimulating foreign futures selling, they positively evaluate that the weak won leads to maximizing actual margins for semiconductor equipment and parts export companies.
In particular, considering that AI infrastructure expansion is a structural growth cycle rather than a temporary fad, the dominant opinion is that investors should calmly separate the wheat from the chaff rather than being swept away by excessive fear.
Risk Factors
The biggest short-term risk, as seen in Google's TurboQuant algorithm optimization announcement, is the market's concern that software efficiency improvements could slow the pace of hardware (memory) expansion.
In addition, there remains a risk that trade barriers, such as the U.S. administration's imposition of tariffs (25%) on AI semiconductors re-exported to China, will increase logistics costs and exacerbate uncertainty in the global IT supply chain.
If the Middle East geopolitical crisis is prolonged, it could cause international oil prices to rise and global economic slowdown, which could potentially burden the Bank of Korea's flexible benchmark interest rate management.
Investment Perspective Summary
The high index level of KOSPI 5,438.87 and the extreme fear (18.2) in the NASDAQ are sufficient to put psychological pressure on investors at present.
However, the clear real-economy data showing a 163.9% surge in March semiconductor exports proves a strong performance far removed from the market's vague anxiety.
Rather than being swayed by macro volatility, it is necessary to respond focusing on blue-chip stocks like Hanmi Semiconductor, which possesses unrivaled global market share and momentum for new HBM4 equipment in 2026.
As the valuation appeal of large equipment stocks is highlighted in the extreme fear phase, a strategy of phased approaches while continuously checking export data and earnings visibility is deemed reasonable.
Investor Checkpoints Q&A
Q1. To what extent will the Google 'TurboQuant' shock actually impact domestic semiconductor equipment stocks?
There are concerns that memory requirements may slightly decrease due to algorithm advancement. However, as global Big Tech companies' overall willingness to build AI infrastructure and their plans to introduce next-generation HBM remain intact, the direct hit on earnings is analyzed to be limited.
Q2. The KRW/USD exchange rate has broken through 1,500 KRW. What is the impact on the semiconductor sector?
The macro negative of concerns over foreign capital outflow and the fundamental positive of exchange gains and margin improvements for export-oriented semiconductor equipment and parts companies are acting simultaneously, highly likely leading to a differentiated market focusing on large-caps.
Q3. What is the core reason for the high expectations for Hanmi Semiconductor's 2026 earnings?
Following the achievement of its highest-ever sales since its founding at 576.7 billion KRW in 2025, the mass production of 'Wide TC Bonders' for HBM4 and HBM5 will begin in earnest, alongside upward CAPEX revisions by global clients in 2026.
Q4. Daily Stock's Fear & Greed Index is currently at the 'Fear' level. What should the investment strategy be?
KOSPI's Fear Index of 27.1 and NASDAQ's 18.2 (Extreme Fear) indicate that short-term investor sentiment has cooled significantly. Therefore, rather than aggressively chasing sell-offs, it may be advantageous to explore low-point phased buying opportunities centered on export equipment stocks with solid fundamentals.
Q5. Is TSMC's massive $56 billion investment related to South Korean equipment stocks?
Beyond direct supply, TSMC's investment in advanced foundries signifies the expansion of the entire global AI semiconductor ecosystem. This leads to accompanying investments by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as well as a sequential trickle-down effect for domestic equipment companies.