Hello, this is Daily Stock, delivering objective indicators on the global tech market and macroeconomic trends.
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Executive Summary
The Nasdaq Composite is displaying a cautious wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
During intraday trading (provisional), the Nasdaq Composite stood at 26,936.04. The proprietary Daily Stock Fear & Greed Index for the Nasdaq came in at 34.7 (Fear), a slight recovery from 27.3 (Fear) a week earlier, yet still reflecting strong investor caution.
If inflation continues its cooling trend, the appeal of long-duration assets among Big Tech companies could be highlighted. However, valuation burdens concentrated in the semiconductor and AI hardware sectors, along with debates over capital expenditure (CAPEX) return on investment, continue to cap upside momentum.
Current Market Context
On an intraday basis (provisional), the KOSPI stood at 7,080.92, the KOSDAQ at 844.48, and the USD/KRW exchange rate traded at 1,366.70 KRW, marking a crossroads between macro stability and supply-demand flows.
In the Daily Stock Fear & Greed Index, the KOSPI currently records 53.8 (Neutral), staging a relief rally from 30.6 (Fear) a week ago. In contrast, the Nasdaq Fear & Greed Index settled down to 34.7 (Fear) from 54.7 (Neutral) a month ago and 56.8 (Neutral) three months ago, signaling an environment where short-term risk management within the tech sector takes precedence.
| Indicator | Current Value (2026-09-24 Intraday Prov.) | 1 Week Ago | 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | 26936.04 | - | - | - |
| Nasdaq Fear & Greed Index | 34.7 (Fear) | 27.3 (Fear) | 54.7 (Neutral) | 56.8 (Neutral) |
| KOSPI Fear & Greed Index | 53.8 (Neutral) | 30.6 (Fear) | 55.6 (Neutral) | 42.7 (Neutral) |
| USD/KRW Exchange Rate | 1,366.70 KRW | - | - | - |
Ahead of the inflation print, the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the Volatility Index (VIX) have reacted in real time to retracements in the 10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y), leading to frequent short-term decoupling between the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and the Nasdaq 100.
Futures markets are closely watching the month-over-month increase in Core PCE to gauge the sustainability of the rate-cut trajectory implemented following the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
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Financial Analysis
During periods of elevated macro volatility, fundamental metrics within the Big Tech value chain—such as free cash flow (FCF) and the scale of AI infrastructure CAPEX deployment—serve as crucial pillars defending share prices.
Aggregate annual CAPEX across the four major hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) continues to hover near record highs, driven by AI data center expansions and accelerated in-house custom ASIC development.
However, entering the second half of 2026, the conversion rate of AI investments into B2B software productivity—moving beyond mere server deployment—has emerged as a central performance benchmark.
Hardware supply-chain companies with capital-intensive structures face rising borrowing costs and depreciation expenses, leaving them vulnerable to operating margin erosion should interest rates remain elevated for longer.
Conversely, mega-cap platform firms with superior self-funding cash generation face relatively limited financial impacts from rate fluctuations and continue to protect earnings per share (EPS) through large-scale share repurchase programs.
Valuation
The Nasdaq 100 forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio currently fluctuates in the mid-to-high 20s, remaining near the upper bound of its historical range.
Compared to general growth stocks in the S&P 500, constituents of the Nasdaq and the SOX exhibit significantly higher multiple elasticity to changes in the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y), the risk-free rate.
If the PCE inflation figure comes in below market expectations and Treasury yields stabilize lower, the discount rate applied to future cash flows of growth stocks declines, creating room for multiple expansion.
Conversely, if Core PCE exceeds expectations due to sticky service costs, pressure for valuation de-rating across tech equities is likely to intensify via higher discount rates.
Consequently, current Nasdaq valuations already price in a substantial expectation of an almost flawless, continuous rate-cutting cycle alongside robust corporate earnings.
Expert & Institutional Analysis
Major Wall Street investment banks view this PCE release as a watershed moment that will determine not only short-term monetary policy trajectory but also the momentum behind a year-end tech rally.
Global investment institutions, including Goldman Sachs, forecast that if inflation stabilizes amid slowing employment metrics, passive capital inflows into technology equities could accelerate.
Morgan Stanley anticipates that performance divergence among individual index constituents will deepen further as earnings leadership shifts from hardware infrastructure providers to the software application layer.
Institutional investors are focusing on hedging downside volatility, actively recalibrating Nasdaq put/call ratios and options gamma positioning during sharp swings in the VIX.
Wary of a potential breakout above the upper bound of the 10-year yield range, some institutions are reallocating portfolios away from broad index-tracking ETFs into individual growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) equities carrying lighter valuation burdens.
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Risk Factors
The primary short-term risk is a rollback of Fed easing expectations should inflation metrics rebound.
If Core PCE bounces back due to persistent pressures in oil and service costs, projections for additional rate cuts within the year could be scaled back, inevitably triggering valuation corrections.
A second risk is the potential delay in AI CAPEX monetization. If actual cash generation in the enterprise software sector falls short of expectations relative to massive capital outlays, broad downward revisions to Big Tech earnings guidance could follow.
A third factor involves global trade headwinds and tightening antitrust regulations targeting Big Tech, as platform regulatory measures finalized across the US and the European Union (EU) have the potential to constrain structural corporate growth.
Finally, an unexpected rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) could translate into FX translation headwinds and currency losses for Nasdaq multinational tech firms that derive substantial revenue overseas.
Investment Perspective
In an environment where market amplitude widens around macro data releases, scenario-based portfolio reviews are preferable to aggressive directional bets.
If inflation moderation is confirmed, investors may participate in broad multiple expansion while monitoring the narrowing valuation gap between AI hardware and platform software.
Conversely, should the print deliver a hawkish shock, maintaining defensive cash positions and adopting a measured, phased-entry approach until volatility gauges settle remains a prudent strategy.
Rather than reacting impulsively to short-term index swings, investors are advised to pace their allocations toward quality Big Tech leaders possessing proven free cash flow generation and the capacity to convert CAPEX into tangible operating earnings.
With the Daily Stock Fear & Greed Index lingering in Fear territory at 34.7, market participants should acknowledge a conservative underlying market tone where dip-buying appetite and wait-and-see caution remain locked in balance, rather than expecting immediate signs of overheating.
Q&A with Daily Stock
Q1. Why does the PCE price index exert a stronger influence on the Nasdaq than the CPI?
This is because the Federal Reserve uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—which features more flexible weighting adjustments—as its primary benchmark when assessing its official 2% inflation target, rather than the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Q2. Why is a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y) negative for the Nasdaq?
Nasdaq growth stocks are long-duration assets whose valuations rely heavily on projected future earnings. When Treasury yields—which act as the discount rate—rise, the present value of those distant cash flows decreases significantly.
Q3. What does a Nasdaq Fear & Greed Index reading of 34.7 (Fear) signify?
It indicates that despite recent index gains, caution and risk aversion remain dominant based on options order flow, market volatility, and short-term momentum indicators.
Q4. How should the correlation between the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and the Nasdaq Composite be interpreted?
The SOX serves as a leading indicator for the AI cycle and possesses higher volatility beta than the Nasdaq. Consequently, it tends to suffer steeper drawdowns during macro shocks and exhibit stronger upside momentum during recoveries.
Q5. What is a practical response strategy for retail investors around this PCE release?
Investors should avoid emotional trading triggered by immediate post-release whipsaws. Instead, it is advisable to assess shifts in futures-implied rate-cut probabilities and verify VIX stabilization before executing phased, disciplined entries.