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Key Summary
This week's earnings calendar is a crucial barometer to gauge the fundamental decoupling of US, European, and Asian stock markets ahead of the full-fledged Q1 2026 earnings season.
While the US is expected to show robust margin defense, Europe and Asia are anticipated to exhibit divergent earnings performances amid shrinking global liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Current Situation Summary
Global stock markets are currently experiencing a severe disconnect between absolute index levels and market participants' sentiment.
As of March 29, 2026, at 04:02 intraday (provisional), the KOSPI and NASDAQ remain at high levels of 5438.87 and 20948.36, respectively, but underlying volatility is extremely high.
According to Daily Stock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index, the NASDAQ is currently in the "Extreme Fear" (10.2) zone, worsening from a week ago (15.6).
The KOSPI is also in a "Fear" (26.1) state, showing a rapidly cooled investor sentiment compared to "Greed" (61.3) a month ago.
This is because, even though the indices themselves have risen, technical indicators such as RSI and momentum reflect extreme caution, and the earnings of consumer and industrial companies to be released this week will be key variables determining the market's direction.
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Financial Analysis
This week's scheduled earnings reports from major global companies are expected to clearly reveal the gap in financial strength (margin rates) across the three regions: the US, Europe, and Asia.
US companies have maintained historically high margin rates through pricing power despite the high-interest-rate and inflationary environment, supporting the fundamentals of large-cap NASDAQ stocks. [1][2]
In contrast, European companies are seeing stagnant earnings growth due to structural low growth and energy cost burdens, while Asian companies are facing the double whammy of delayed economic recovery in China and falling export unit prices. [2][3]
In particular, through the earnings of major retail and consumer companies announced this week, it is necessary to closely examine how much of the raw material price hikes are being passed on to consumers and whether free cash flow (FCF) has been impaired.
| Release Date (Local Time) | Region | Key Sector/Company Group | Earnings Observation Points (Macro Linkage) |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 30 | Asia | Chinese EV & Platforms | PBOC liquidity injection effect & domestic margin recovery |
| March 31 | Europe | Global Consumer & Fashion | Defensive strength against European domestic consumption slump & inventory turnover |
| April 1 | US | Consumer Staples & Healthcare | US consumer purchasing power maintenance & impact of wage hikes |
| April 2 | US | Industrials & IT Services | SME employment trends & correlation with global PMI |
| April 3 | Asia | Major Japanese Exporters & Materials | Impact of yen exchange rate fluctuations on operating profit amid BOJ policy changes |
Valuation
The US market continues to justify high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on robust earnings, but European and Asian markets are showing divergent paths in terms of valuation attractiveness.
In the US, the overwhelming earnings growth of the tech sector supports the valuation premium of the overall market, but without further margin expansion, current valuations could become a burden. [2][4]
Conversely, Europe has formed low valuations below long-term averages, centered on value and cyclical stocks, presenting the possibility of a catch-up rally if the ECB's rate-cut cycle begins in earnest. [5]
Asian markets, especially Japan, are undergoing valuation re-ratings through governance reforms and shareholder return policies, while South Korea and China are in a phase of waiting for a rebound in the global manufacturing PMI amid suppressed valuations.
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Expert & Institutional Analysis
Major global investment banks (IBs) remain somewhat cautious about the 2026 earnings outlook, showing a distinct difference in temperature by region.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect US corporate earnings to remain solid this year but warn that increased capital expenditure (Capex) related to artificial intelligence (AI) could act as a margin pressure factor going forward. [4][6]
According to a recent analysis by Rothschild & Co, the earnings growth rate of US companies over the past decade averaged 9% annually, compared to 5% for Europe and 3% for Asia, resulting in a severe fundamental decoupling. [2]
Experts diagnose that at this juncture, where volatility in raw material prices such as oil and copper is expanding, the divergent monetary policies of respective central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC) will be the key inflection point for Q2 corporate earnings.
Risk Factors
The most significant risk concern is a scenario where global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions stimulate raw material prices, exacerbating the cost burden on companies.
The recent upward trend in Brent crude and copper prices goes beyond simple demand recovery, raising concerns about entrenched inflation. This could immediately exert downward pressure on the guidance of industrial and manufacturing companies releasing earnings this week.
Additionally, the high KRW/USD exchange rate, reaching 1509.00 won (provisional intraday), is a factor stimulating concerns about capital flight from Asian emerging markets.
If US Treasury yields experience another spike or geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify, the possibility of an abrupt valuation correction cannot be ruled out, starting with some European and Asian markets with vulnerable fundamentals.
Investment Perspective Summary
Investors approaching this week's earnings calendar should focus more on the 'future guidance' and 'macro sensitivity' provided by companies rather than simply whether there is an earnings surprise.
In the US market, it is advisable to approach quality stocks with proven margin defense capabilities, while refraining from unreasonable chase-buying given the extremely fearful investor sentiment.
In European and Asian markets, a barbell strategy diversifying the portfolio with dividend and cyclical stocks that benefit from the recovery of global manufacturing PMI while carrying less valuation burden could be effective.
Ultimately, the fundamental decoupling of the US, Europe, and Asia is likely to persist for the time being. Therefore, please check the fundamental strength of each region through this week's earnings announcements and make every effort to manage risks.
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202603/gen_69c8266e73db20.62956579.png]
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is the most critical global macro indicator to watch in this week's earnings calendar?
Besides corporate earnings, the US employment-related indicators and global manufacturing PMI scheduled for release this week are crucial. You must check whether corporate guidance aligns with the direction of actual macro indicators.
2. The NASDAQ index is high, so why is the Fear & Greed Index at 'Extreme Fear'?
An absolute rise in index levels cannot unconditionally be deemed greed. If volatility (VIX) or short-term momentum indicators deteriorate, the index is calculated lower. This reflects an extreme sentiment of caution where the market could be significantly shaken by even a minor shock.
3. What exactly is the tri-polar decoupling of the US, Europe, and Asia?
It is a phenomenon where the economic fundamentals and stock price trends of the three regions unfold differently: tech-driven earnings growth in the US, value-driven stagnation in Europe, and divergent trajectories based on domestic demand and exchange rate fluctuations in Asia.
4. What impact does the KRW/USD exchange rate exceeding 1,500 won have on Asian stock market earnings?
While export companies enjoy a short-term positive effect of increased KRW-converted profits, concerns about sluggish domestic consumption due to rising import prices and foreign capital outflows grow, which can negatively affect overall stock market valuations.
5. How should I hedge against raw material price hike risks during this earnings season?
Alternatives include diversified investments into quality companies with monopolistic market dominance capable of smoothly passing cost increases onto consumer product prices, or into energy and materials sectors where rising raw material prices act favorably on earnings.