Hello, I am the expert editor of the Nasdaq Story section at Daily Stock.
Core Summary
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202603/gen_69bb3d02594765.04594322.png]
Nvidia has once again exceeded market expectations, recording a phenomenal $68.1 billion in revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 [1].
However, as the transition to the next-generation 'Rubin' architecture makes 100% liquid cooling essential, concerns about physical infrastructure bottlenecks are also growing.
Big tech companies' AI capital expenditures (CAPEX) remain robust, but macroeconomic uncertainty is pressuring growth stock multiples.
Investors must look beyond simple chip performance improvements and pay close attention to the dynamic changes across the data center ecosystem, such as thermal management and securing the power grid.
Current Situation Summary
As of March 19, 2026, major domestic and international markets are continuing to show volatility with distinct differences in sentiment.
Today, the KOSPI closed at 5750.95 and the KOSDAQ at 1137.93, while the Nasdaq index recorded 22152.42 and the USD/KRW exchange rate stood at 1502.50 KRW.
According to Daily Stock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index, the KOSPI is currently in the 'Neutral (45.8)' stage.
Although it has recovered slightly from 'Fear (30.9)' a week ago, a conservative sentiment remains deeply ingrained compared to a month ago (57).
On the other hand, the Nasdaq Fear & Greed Index currently points to 'Extreme Fear (18.2),' indicating severely dampened investor sentiment.
Looking at the trend of 'Fear (25.1)' a week ago, 'Neutral (41.9)' a month ago, and 'Fear (22.2)' three months ago, it is evident that extreme caution has formed regarding momentum and volatility, regardless of the index's upward movement.
Financial Analysis
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202603/gen_69bb3d17b698c0.36063545.png]
Looking at Nvidia's recently announced fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 earnings, its dominance in the data center sector has become even more solidified.
Total quarterly revenue surged 73% year-over-year to $68.13 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) hit $1.62, beating market consensus.
Notably, data center revenue skyrocketed 75% year-over-year to $62.3 billion, while the networking segment also showed strong performance, growing 263% to reach $10.9 billion.
The guidance for the next quarter (Q1 FY2027) was set at $78.0 billion, reaffirming the market's robust demand for AI infrastructure [1].
| Category | Q3 FY2026 (Actual) | Q4 FY2026 (Actual) | Q1 FY2027 (Guidance) |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Total Revenue** | Unconfirmed daily price | $68.13B | $78.0B |
| **Data Center Revenue** | Unconfirmed daily price | $62.3B | Unconfirmed daily price |
| **Gross Margin (Non-GAAP)** | Unconfirmed daily price | 75.2% | Expected around 75.0% |
| **EPS (Non-GAAP)** | Unconfirmed daily price | $1.62 | Unconfirmed daily price |
The gross margin was defended at the 75.2% level, proving the immense pricing power of its high-value-added hardware ecosystem.
However, with upcoming changes in accounting standards for stock-based compensation (SBC), careful monitoring of non-GAAP margins is necessary.
Valuation
The reason the Nasdaq 100 currently shows relatively higher volatility compared to S&P 500 growth stocks is due to the direct linkage between macro interest rates and multiples.
For big tech's continuous CAPEX investments to be justified by high-valuation multiples, substantial return on investment (ROI) metrics for enterprise AI must back them up, but the market feels somewhat burdened about pricing this in prematurely.
Based on the latest closing prices, the US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) is trending in the 4.1% range, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing strength around the 106 mark (unconfirmed daily prices).
This strong dollar and high-interest-rate environment fuels the discounting of free cash flows for multinational tech stocks with high overseas revenue exposure, acting as a key factor suppressing multiple expansion.
Ultimately, Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio will be re-evaluated based not on past phenomenal earnings, but on the speed of the successful rollout of the upcoming Rubin architecture.
If expectations for interest rate cuts retreat further, a multiple contraction across AI hardware equipment stocks may be inevitable, requiring constant checks on their sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators.
Expert and Institutional Analysis
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202603/gen_69bb3d2f00d1c1.49764003.png]
Wall Street experts analyzing the server infrastructure trends recently unveiled at GTC 2026 unanimously agree that liquid cooling technology has become a new leading indicator for Nvidia's earnings.
Unlike the limited air-cooled environments of the Blackwell era, the NVL72 systems based on the next-generation Rubin platform consume up to 150kW to 250kW of power, making 100% liquid cooling mandatory [2].
Institutions point out that the key lies in how quickly partner companies can mass-produce 45°C warm-water cooling systems and coolant distribution units (CDUs).
Even if Nvidia's chip supply is smooth, if enterprise customers' data center retrofitting tasks are delayed, the timing of final revenue recognition could also be deferred.
Some optimistic analysts have even upgraded their long-term target price to the $325 level, citing the massive order pipeline for next-generation chips.
However, this figure is also based on the best-case scenario where customers' physical infrastructure transitions occur without delay and the gross margin is consistently maintained around the 75% level.
Risk Factors
The biggest risk in the current phase is the concern over delayed AI monetization, intertwined with the pressure of macroeconomic indicators.
In a situation where market caution is extremely high, with the VIX index exceeding 22 (unconfirmed daily price, based on the latest closing price), lower-than-expected AI service adoption rates could lead to a CAPEX reduction cycle by big tech.
Furthermore, the physical limitations of data center infrastructure—namely, the difficulty in securing power grids and supply chain bottlenecks for liquid cooling facilities—cannot be overlooked.
No matter how innovative the system's performance is, implementation is impossible unless the large-scale power to run it and the cooling infrastructure to dissipate the heat are in place beforehand.
Global regulatory authorities' AI export control policies and antitrust investigation movements are also major variables dampening investor sentiment.
In particular, if the upward trend in the US 10-year Treasury yield is prolonged, the possibility that tier-2 cloud providers' capacity for additional infrastructure investment will plummet due to increased financing costs must be kept open.
Investment Perspective Summary
While Nvidia holds hegemony in the AI industry based on its overwhelming technological moat and strong earnings, it has now moved into a phase where it must consider the realities of 'deployment infrastructure' beyond just chip 'performance.'
Whether the next-generation architecture successfully settles in the market will largely depend on the joint capabilities of cooling and power solution partners within the ecosystem.
The Extreme Fear level (18.2) currently overshadowing the Nasdaq market is prematurely pricing in the uncertainties of this macroeconomic environment and the growing pains of the transition period.
Therefore, rather than aggressively chasing the rally, it may be reasonable to cross-verify the earnings of power and cooling infrastructure companies within the value chain and consider a scenario of conservative, split purchasing.
Investor Checkpoints Q&A
Q1. What is the biggest physical change in data centers upon the introduction of Nvidia's Rubin architecture?
As power consumption per rack surges, existing air-cooled systems can no longer handle the heat generation, making the introduction of 100% liquid cooling facilities mandatory.
Q2. What is the main reason the Nasdaq market's Fear & Greed Index is currently at 'Extreme Fear'?
It is due to doubts about the sustainability of big tech's large-scale AI investments, along with concerns over prolonged high interest rates and a strong dollar (DXY) environment exerting strong downward pressure on growth stock multiples.
Q3. How does the US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) affect the stock prices of AI hardware companies like Nvidia?
Rising interest rates lower valuations by increasing the discount rate on companies' future free cash flows, and they increase the cost of capital procurement for customers' massive capital expenditures (CAPEX).
Q4. What were the key financial metrics to note in the recent quarterly earnings?
Defending a gross margin of 75.2% amidst concerns of intensifying competition, and the overwhelming growth of the data center segment, which surged 75% year-over-year to surpass $62.3 billion.
Q5. From a long-term investor's perspective, what are the most critical risk variables to monitor right now?
Whether enterprise AI software can generate substantial return on investment (ROI), and hardware deployment bottlenecks caused by delays in supplying ancillary infrastructure such as coolant distribution units (CDUs).