Hello. This is Daily Stock, analyzing key trends in global tech stocks and the Nasdaq market.
Executive Summary
Nvidia (NVDA) is continuing its record-breaking revenue growth based on its monopoly status in the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor market.
In particular, it is drawing market attention by presenting $91 billion in revenue guidance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 (May-July 2026), which is scheduled to be announced on August 26, 2026.
The success of this guidance depends on the sustainability of the Data Center segment, which accounts for over 90% of total revenue, and a smooth transition to the next-generation accelerator chips, the Blackwell and Rubin platforms.
Amidst the volatility of the 10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y) and talks of capital expenditure (CapEx) pacing by tech companies, Nvidia's earnings visibility is expected to be a key milestone determining the direction of the overall Nasdaq multiple.
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Market Overview
As of today (during the intraday session on August 12, 2026 (tentative)), the Korean financial market shows the KOSPI at 6,442.33, the KOSDAQ at 857.10, and the USD/KRW exchange rate fluctuating around 1,413.50 won.
The US Nasdaq index is at 26,445.45.
According to the Fear & Greed Index compiled by Daily Stock, the Nasdaq Fear & Greed Index is currently at the "Greed" level (60.8), up slightly from a week ago (60, Neutral), indicating that investor expectations are somewhat elevated.
The KOSPI Fear & Greed Index is currently pointing to "Fear" (21.5), contrasting with "Fear" (26.4) a week ago, "Extreme Fear" (12.6) a month ago, and "Neutral" (58.5) three months ago.
Nvidia's stock price is trading around $217.50 as of the latest confirmed value (closing price on August 11, 2026), with its market capitalization standing at approximately $5.3 trillion.
The market is watching closely to see if Nvidia's strong performance, which generated $75.2 billion from its Data Center alone out of $81.6 billion in total revenue in the first quarter, will continue into the next quarter.
Financial Analysis
Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 revenue surged 85% year-over-year to $81.6 billion, driven overwhelmingly by Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion.
Its Non-GAAP gross margin remained at 75.0%, proving strong pricing power.
For the Q2 guidance, the company projected revenue of $91.0 billion (with a range of ±2%), which is broadly in line with the market consensus of $91.8 billion to $92.0 billion.
In the upcoming Q2 announcement, Data Center revenue is expected to exceed $80 billion, and the shipping schedule and guidance for the next-generation Blackwell platform remain the primary focus.
The table below summarizes Nvidia's recent quarterly performance trends and guidance.
| Metrics | FY 2026 Q4 (Actual) | FY 2027 Q1 (Actual) | FY 2027 Q2 (Guidance/Consensus) |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Total Revenue** | $68.1B | $81.6B | $91.0B (±2%) |
| **Data Center Revenue** | $62.3B | $75.2B | $80.0B~$83.0B (Est.) |
| **Gross Margin (Non-GAAP)** | 75.2% | 75.0% | 75.0% (Median) |
| **EPS (Non-GAAP)** | $1.62 | $1.87 | $2.01~$2.08 (Consensus) |
Valuation
Reflecting the latest stock price (approx. $217.50), Nvidia's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is valued at approximately 23.7x.
This represents a significant discount compared to its historical 10-year average P/E of 61.6x.
Market analysts project full-year EPS for fiscal 2027 to be in the range of $8.79 to $9.45.
While strong earnings growth has alleviated valuation pressures, some analyses suggest that if growth stagnates or if clients' CapEx spending slows down in the future, the multiple could face downward pressure.
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Expert & Institutional Analysis
Major Wall Street investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, look favorably upon Nvidia's recent partnership with financial giants such as Apollo, BlackRock, and Blackstone to build a $500 billion AI infrastructure funding platform.
Morgan Stanley called it a "strong catalyst to silence concerns," maintaining an 'Overweight' rating and a price target of $288.
Morningstar also set Nvidia's Fair Value at $280, judging that the current stock price remains undervalued.
Experts explain that demand for AI chips from big tech firms remains robust, and the key to stock performance lies in whether Nvidia, with its pricing power, can offer Q3 guidance exceeding $100 billion.
Risk Factors
The biggest risk Nvidia currently faces is skepticism over the return on investment (ROI) period for giant tech firms investing in AI.
As major customers like Microsoft and Google speed up development of their own custom AI chips (ASICs), their moves to reduce dependence on Nvidia in the medium-to-long term present a potential threat.
Additionally, the possibility of tightened US restrictions on semiconductor exports to China continues to act as a source of uncertainty.
Although China-bound data center revenues have already been conservatively excluded from guidance, the potential impact on performance from further supply chain constraints or expanded regulations cannot be ruled out.
Investment Outlook
In conclusion, Nvidia sits at the center of the Nasdaq AI ecosystem based on its overwhelming technological lead and robust cash generation capabilities in the Data Center segment.
Visibility on earnings is expected to become even clearer if a smooth transition to the Vera Rubin platform is demonstrated ahead of the mass production of the Blackwell platform and its year-end commercialization.
However, from a macroeconomic perspective, the trend of the US 10-year Treasury yield and changes in big tech accelerator demand due to global slowdown concerns must be closely monitored.
As expectations of rapid growth are already priced in, checking for unexpected variables through the Q2 final earnings and next-quarter guidance on August 26 should take priority.
Investment Checklist
- **Q2 Earnings Release Schedule:** Have you confirmed the Q2 results and Q3 guidance to be announced after market close on August 26, 2026?
- **Data Center Revenue Mix:** Does the Data Center segment maintain a share of 90% or more of total revenue, showing solid growth?
- **Blackwell and Rubin Launch Roadmap:** Are you tracking the mass production schedule of the next-generation GB300 lineup and the commercialization guidelines for the Rubin chips?
- **Customer CapEx Trends:** Are you keeping an eye on changes in AI capital expenditure estimates for hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, and Google?
- **Gross Margin Defense:** Have you checked if the company is defending a high gross margin (Non-GAAP) around the 75% level despite the emergence of strong competitive products?