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Key Summary
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As demand for AI data centers explosively increases, Microsoft (MSFT) Azure cloud recorded remarkable revenue growth in the first quarter of 2026.
Separate from this leap by Big Tech, the decoupling of monetary policies and fundamentals among the three major global economic blocs—the US, Europe, and Asia (China and Japan)—is becoming more pronounced.
Current Situation Summary
As of intraday trading on May 25, 2026 (provisional), the Nasdaq index recorded 26,343.97 and the KOSPI 7,847.71, showing active market movements.
At the same time, the USD/KRW exchange rate traded at 1,514.00, demonstrating high sensitivity to global liquidity flows.
According to Daily Stock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index, today's Nasdaq Fear & Greed Index stands at a Neutral (58.6) level, a slightly cooled-down sentiment compared to the Greed (63.2) level a week ago.
For reference, the Nasdaq's index was Greed (68.5) one month ago and Greed (66.8) three months ago.
The KOSPI Fear & Greed Index is also currently at Neutral (57.3), maintaining a level similar to the Neutral (58.9) from a week ago.
The KOSPI recorded Greed (64.8) one month ago and Greed (63.4) three months ago, indicating that recent short-term overheating is resolving.
Financial Analysis
According to the Q1 2026 earnings report, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment achieved astonishing results, driven by the surging demand for AI workloads.
In particular, Azure and other cloud services revenue surged 40% year-over-year, driving company-wide profit growth.
However, behind this revenue surge lies an unprecedented scale of capital expenditure (CAPEX).
The combined 2026 guidance for infrastructure investments by Microsoft and Alphabet is estimated to reach nearly $190 billion, making investment efficiency relative to free cash flow (FCF) increasingly crucial going forward.
Valuation
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The US stock market shows a strong trend of justifying its historical valuation premium based on the overwhelming profit-generating capabilities of cloud and AI companies.
Conversely, despite expectations of interest rate cuts, European stock markets are experiencing an expanding valuation discount relative to the US due to structural manufacturing recessions and sluggish global PMIs.
Asian markets are also charting a differentiated valuation trajectory due to policy decoupling.
While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is seeking a gradual normalization of monetary policy (rate hikes), the People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues its liquidity easing stance, such as cutting the reserve requirement ratio, to overcome sluggish domestic demand.
| Major Economic Bloc | Monetary Policy Direction | Stock Market Fundamental Characteristics | Valuation Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| **US** | Limited cuts/Wait-and-see | Strong profit growth led by AI and cloud | Maintains high premium centered on tech stocks |
| **Europe (EU)** | Accommodative (ECB rate cut expectations) | Slowing growth and persistent manufacturing PMI slump | Relatively undervalued due to weakening fundamentals |
| **Asia** | Decoupling (BOJ tightening vs PBOC easing) | Delayed domestic recovery and transition in supply chain restructuring | Sectoral differentiation based on policy benefits |
Expert & Institutional Analysis
According to analysis by major market research firms like Synergy Research Group, the combined size of the global cloud market continued its record growth in Q1 2026.
In terms of market share, AWS maintained its lead at approximately 28-30%, while Microsoft Azure rapidly narrowed the gap with about a 25% share, and Google Cloud accounted for a 13-14% level.
Experts assess that the combined global market share of these Cloud Big 3 has surpassed 68%, and a winner-takes-all structure is strengthening as generative AI becomes an essential infrastructure for enterprises.
Meanwhile, macro experts diagnose that this IT infrastructure expansion is also having a massive ripple effect on the real commodities economy.
J.P. Morgan Research forecasted that the expansion of AI data center power grids is triggering immense copper demand, which will fuel a worldwide copper supply shortage throughout 2026.
Risk Factors
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Energy-driven inflation risks have emerged recently, with Brent crude oil surpassing $110 per barrel in May 2026 due to geopolitical friction surrounding the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East and escalating Iran-related tensions.
Alongside this, aging mines in major producing countries like Chile and China's sulfuric acid export control issues have converged, sending copper prices soaring to the $13,400 per ton level.
Because stable power and copper infrastructure are essential for the AI cloud ecosystem to operate smoothly, this surge in raw material prices could directly lead to increased infrastructure construction costs for Big Tech companies.
Furthermore, if upward price pressures stemming from oil and raw materials push back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, a prolonged high-interest-rate environment could provide a pretext for short-term corrections in tech stock valuations.
Investment Perspective Summary
The explosive revenue growth of Microsoft Azure is a strong indicator that AI technology has entered a monetization phase in the corporate field.
However, it cannot be overlooked that the macro fundamentals of the three global economic blocs are developing differently, and surging raw material prices are threatening the real economy.
Rather than overly focusing on a single theme or specific country's stock market, a balanced perspective between infrastructure investment beneficiaries and products that can hedge geopolitical risks may be needed.
While paying attention to core AI infrastructure companies with clear long-term growth visibility, frequently checking macroeconomic indicators and raw material price volatility appears to be an effective strategy.
Investor Checkpoints Q&A
Q1: What was the growth rate of Microsoft Azure in Q1 2026?
A1: Microsoft's Azure and other cloud services revenue for Q1 2026 (calendar year) increased by approximately 40% year-over-year, recording a steep growth trend.
Q2: What is the current market share breakdown of the top 3 cloud infrastructure providers?
A2: Although there are minor differences depending on the research firm, generally AWS accounts for 28-30%, MS Azure for about 25%, and Google Cloud for about 13-14%, with the Big 3 commanding over 68% of the total market.
Q3: What are the Daily Stock KOSPI and Nasdaq Fear & Greed Indexes as of today?
A3: As of intraday trading on May 25, 2026 (provisional), the Nasdaq is at Neutral (58.6) and the KOSPI is at Neutral (57.3), showing a somewhat cooled-down sentiment compared to previous Greed phases.
Q4: How do the monetary policy directions differ among the three-bloc system of the US, Europe, and Asia?
A4: The US Fed is showing caution toward rate cuts based on a solid economy, while the European ECB maintains an accommodative stance to defend against recession. In Asia, the regional decoupling is distinct as Japan's BOJ seeks rate hikes, while China's PBOC injects liquidity for economic stimulus.
Q5: What is the main background behind the recent surge in copper and crude oil prices?
A5: Copper demand exploded due to power grid construction and supply chain limits stemming from AI data center expansion. Concurrently, geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East has pushed oil prices over $110 per barrel, heightening macro uncertainty.