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Today, we will conduct a detailed analysis of the recent stock price fluctuations of SK Hynix, South Korea's leading semiconductor company, along with the shipping status of its High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and future outlook scenarios.
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202607/gen_6a61bc80002771.29150497.png]
Executive Summary
Recently, doubts regarding AI investment returns and global macroeconomic variables have caused SK Hynix's stock price to undergo a severe correction, dropping approximately 43% from its peak (MDD 43%).
However, its technological leadership remains solid, with reports indicating the company preemptively shipped mass-produced 12-layer HBM4 volumes to Nvidia at the end of June 2026.
The consensus for the Q2 earnings, to be announced on July 29, forecasts sales of approximately KRW 83.9 trillion and an operating profit of around KRW 64.1 trillion, yielding a record-high operating profit margin of 76.5%.
Current Status Summary
In the global semiconductor market, investments in AI infrastructure continue, led by Nvidia's next-generation AI accelerators, Blackwell Ultra and Rubin.
As of July 23, 2026, SK Hynix recorded an intraday plunge of up to 43% from its high amid recent geopolitical risks and adjustments in semiconductor supply and demand.
On that day, the KOSPI index closed at 7096.89, and the USD/KRW exchange rate remained highly volatile at 1469.00.
Notably, according to Daily Stock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index, the KOSPI fear level is currently in an "Extreme Fear" state (17.3), recovering slightly from "Extreme Fear" (12.1) a week ago, but still facing significant selling pressure.
Nevertheless, DRAM spot prices rose by an average of 2% last week, proving resilient fundamental strength and supporting the preservation of earnings performance in the second half of the year.
Financial Analysis
SK Hynix's Q2 2026 earnings release is confirmed for July 29 at 9:00 AM, with the market expecting the company to break its quarterly earnings record once again.
According to FnGuide, the sales consensus for this quarter is estimated at KRW 83.9264 trillion, and the operating profit is estimated at KRW 64.1632 trillion.
This is driven by the expanded supply of HBM—which carries a significantly higher profit margin than general DRAM—and explosive demand growth for enterprise SSDs (eSSD).
Previously in Q1, the company achieved record performance with sales of KRW 52.6 trillion and an operating profit of KRW 37.6 trillion (operating margin of 71.5%).
| Category | Q1 2026 (Confirmed) | Q2 2026 (Consensus) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | KRW 52.6T | KRW 83.9T | +277.5% |
| Operating Profit | KRW 37.6T | KRW 64.1T | +596.5% |
| Operating Margin | 71.5% | 76.5% | - |
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202607/gen_6a61bc8a068cc6.93365510.png]
Valuation
Due to the sharp drop in stock price, SK Hynix's multiple has fallen near its historical valuation bottom, comparable to the deficit period of 2022.
However, the HBM market size in 2026 is estimated to increase by 58% year-on-year to $54.6 billion, and SK Hynix is expected to maintain an overwhelming market share of over 50% in terms of revenue.
Most high-spec HBM volumes are secured through long-term agreements (LTAs) with customers on a 3-to-5-year basis, protecting them from the risk of sudden price drops.
This high revenue visibility supports the view that the current temporary drop in valuation represents an extreme undervaluation relative to its earnings capability.
Expert and Institutional Analysis
Major institutions, including Hana Securities, analyzed that the recent correction in semiconductor stocks is excessive from a fundamental perspective, such as the price-to-earnings (PER) ratio.
Experts point to the earnings announcements and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) plans of US hyperscalers (Big Tech) scheduled for late July as key turning points for a rebound.
The CAPEX growth rate of Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta is expected to continue rising from 80% in Q1 2026 to 92% in Q3, ensuring robust demand for HBM.
According to a report by Daeshin Securities, SK Hynix's share in Nvidia's HBM3E market is projected to reach approximately 71% in 2026, and it is expected to maintain a strong dominant position of 55% in the next-generation HBM4 market.
Risk Factors
The biggest risk factor is a potential delay in profit realization from Big Tech's massive AI business models relative to their high expenditure.
If concerns about an AI bubble or low investment returns spread, hyperscalers' downscaling of CAPEX could materialize.
If powerful competitors, such as Samsung Electronics, pass HBM4 quality tests and accelerate their volume supply, unit price competition could emerge as SK Hynix's monopoly status weakens.
Externally, fluctuations in the USD/KRW exchange rate, which reaches 1469.00, and geopolitical tensions could lead to foreign net selling in cash and futures, weighing down market supply and demand.
Investment Perspective Summary
SK Hynix is set to demonstrate its overwhelming earnings power to the market once again starting from its earnings release on July 29.
Although the stock price recently underwent a correction due to the deteriorating macroeconomic environment, its preemptive next-generation operations, such as shipping mass-produced 12-layer HBM4, remain top-tier in the industry.
Therefore, rather than reacting to short-term volatility, a split-entry strategy that checks the continuity of Big Tech infrastructure investments through the second half of the year and into next year seems advisable.
Investor Checklist Q&A
Q1. When is the date and time for SK Hynix's Q2 earnings release?
A1. According to the official schedule, the announcement and IR conference call are scheduled for July 29, 2026, at 9:00 AM KST.
Q2. What caused the recent sharp decline in the stock price from its peak?
A2. It is the result of a combination of high valuation pressures across global tech stocks, market doubts regarding the rate of return on Big Tech's AI investments, and the liquidation of some leveraged investments.
Q3. What is the current status of the 12-layer HBM4 supply to Nvidia?
A3. According to foreign media and industry reports, SK Hynix has already succeeded in securing its supply chain position by preemptively shipping mass-produced 12-layer HBM4 units to Nvidia at the end of June.
Q4. How does the rise in the USD/KRW exchange rate affect earnings?
A4. As a semiconductor exporter with a high share of USD settlements, a high exchange rate in the mid-1400s temporarily improves KRW-denominated sales and operating profit.
Q5. Is there a concern that the monopoly structure will be shaken by competitor Samsung Electronics entering the HBM market?
A5. While market share may adjust slightly as Samsung Electronics chases HBM4 and supply sources diversify, SK Hynix's position as the leading partner within Nvidia is expected to remain firm due to their long-term partnership.