Hello, this is Daily Stock, analyzing core volatility and macro indicators in global financial markets.
Summary
Recently, the global financial market has been experiencing a three-way decoupling, with the fundamentals of the US, Europe, and Asia moving in different directions.
In this process, the gold price tested a strong support level around $4,000 per ounce and has recently attempted a rebound to the $4,016 level.
This rebound is backed by signs of easing inflation, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June falling 0.4% month-on-month.
As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to the 100.4p level, signaling dollar weakness.
Market Overview
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202607/gen_6a5d1f12e72c05.31723295.png]
As of intraday trading on July 20, 2026 (tentative), domestic and international stock markets are showing clear volatility.
The KOSPI index is recording the 6,820.60 level, and the KOSDAQ index is fluctuating around the 791.84 level.
The US Nasdaq index is trading at the 25,520.24 level, and the USD/KRW exchange rate remains high at 1,490.00 won.
Gold, a global safe-haven asset, is continuing its intraday trend at around $4,016.95 per ounce.
According to the Fear and Greed Index compiled by Daily Stock, the KOSPI is currently in a state of Extreme Fear (12.4).
This indicates that market sentiment remains severely contracted compared to Extreme Fear (13.1) a week ago.
On the other hand, the Nasdaq Fear and Greed Index currently stands at Fear (37.1).
Moving from Neutral (46.8) a week ago to the Fear stage, global liquidity's preference for safe-haven assets has further intensified.
Financial Analysis
Currently, various changes in global commodity and currency indicators are prompting a reassessment of the value of hard assets.
While oil prices show volatility due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the decoupling trend between gold and the US dollar is re-emerging.
The table below shows key global market indicators and their trends as of intraday trading on July 20, 2026 (tentative).
| Indicator | Current Value (Intraday Tentative) | MoM Change | Main Influencing Factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| **International Gold Price (XAU/USD)** | 4,016.95 USD/oz | -4.59% (Past 1 month) | US inflation cooling and weaker USD correlation |
| **US Dollar Index (DXY)** | 100.49 points | Downward trend (vs June high of 101.81) | Impact of June CPI falling 0.4% MoM |
| **USD/KRW Exchange Rate** | 1,490.00 KRW | Increased volatility | Safe-haven preference & concerns over emerging market capital outflows |
| **KOSPI Index** | 6,820.60 points | Sustained Extreme Fear stage | Macro uncertainties & geopolitical risks |
| **Nasdaq Index** | 25,520.24 points | Entry into Fear stage | Re-assessment of the US Fed's rate path |
While the US is seeing growing expectations for monetary policy easing supported by slowing inflation, Europe and Asia are on different growth paths.
The spillover effects of this liquidity are complexly affecting commodities across the board, including copper and crude oil.
Valuation
Gold prices have undergone a correction after hitting an all-time high of $5,595.47 per ounce in January 2026.
According to the World Gold Council's (WGC) gold valuation framework, the fair value of gold is currently calculated to be around the $4,100 level (±5% margin of error).
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202607/gen_6a5d1f1be94a14.38208618.png]
Therefore, the current price hovering around $4,016 per ounce is assessed to have escaped the historical bubble zone and entered the fair value range.
Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are also gradually moving out of the oversold zone, securing downside support.
Amid delayed economic recovery in Europe and relative weakness of Asian currencies, the diversification appeal of physical gold still scores highly in valuation.
If a temporary decline in the US dollar leads to a drop in real interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold—a non-yielding asset—will decrease, keeping the scenario of renewed buying inflows valid.
Expert & Institutional Analysis
Major global investment banks analyze that despite the short-term correction in gold, its long-term upward momentum has not been damaged.
Goldman Sachs recently maintained its positive outlook, presenting a gold price target of $4,900 for the end of 2026 in a recent report.
JP Morgan also set its Q4 2026 target at $4,500 per ounce, implying ample upside potential compared to current prices.
They expect that as the Federal Reserve's rate cut path becomes clearer, ETF inflows from institutional investors will begin in earnest.
In addition, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, explained that the stabilization of oil prices due to easing tensions in the Middle East has relieved inflation concerns.
At the same time, the fact that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued its buying streak for 20 consecutive months, purchasing an additional 14.93 tons of gold in June alone, serves as structural support.
Risk Factors
However, downside pressures and risk factors surrounding the gold market also persist.
The biggest variables are the possibility of the US Treasury shifting toward a 'strong dollar policy' and hawkish remarks from Fed officials.
Recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reversed past remarks favoring a weak dollar, emphasizing that "the US has always aimed for a strong dollar policy."
If this stance continues, the signal of a weak dollar could be short-lived, and a stronger dollar could pressure gold prices again.
Furthermore, if geopolitical conflicts surrounding the Strait of Hormuz reignite, causing supply chain disruptions, oil prices could spike.
A spike in oil prices could prompt global monetary authorities to tighten policy further, leading to a scenario that raises the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Investment Perspective
In conclusion, the establishment of the $4,000 support level for gold and the weak dollar signal stand at a watershed moment for short-term technical rebounds and mid-to-long-term portfolio diversification.
Investors must closely observe the liquidity flows resulting from policy differences among the US, Europe, and Asia.
The shift of capital to hard assets is highly likely to function as an asset protection tool in situations where market volatility is maximized.
However, keeping in mind the potential revival of a strong dollar policy or an unexpected inflation rebound scenario, approaching with a split-purchase perspective seems advisable.
Daily Stock Q&A
Q1. What caused the recent sharp drop in gold prices from their peak?
A1. After breaking above the peak of $5,595 in January, institutional selling driven by prospects of delayed Fed rate cuts and rising real interest rates was the main cause.
Q2. What specific indicator shows the current weak dollar signal?
A2. As the US June CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month, confirming a cooling of inflation, the US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened, slipping to the 100.4p level.
Q3. Are global central banks continuing their gold purchasing trend?
A3. Yes, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBOC), which secured an additional 14.93 tons in June, continuing its purchases for 20 consecutive months to back structural demand.
Q4. Why did gold prices temporarily fall despite the occurrence of geopolitical risks?
A4. The Middle East conflict pushed up oil prices, raising inflation concerns. This increased prospects for the Fed's hawkish interest rate policy, thereby raising the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Q5. What are the short-term and mid-to-long-term forecasts for gold prices?
A5. In the short term, holding the $4,000 level is key. For the mid-to-long term, major institutions such as Goldman Sachs ($4,900) and JP Morgan ($4,500) maintain an upward outlook.