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Executive Summary
- Due to recent US 10-year Treasury yield volatility and tech-focused rotation, Nvidia's (NVDA) stock price underwent a correction from its peak, settling at $203.31 as of the close on July 17, 2026.
- The market is focusing on whether total revenue guidance of $91 billion and its core data center revenue can surpass the $80 billion milestone for the first time in history in the FY2027 Q2 earnings release on August 26.
- Concerns over AI infrastructure expenditure (Capex) efficiency, triggered by Chinese startup Moonshot AI's low-cost, high-performance model announcement, have emerged as a short-term risk factor for its multiple.
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202607/gen_6a5ac383c85704.67743929.png]
Market Overview
Recently, the Nasdaq market has experienced extreme capital rotation due to changes in the US Federal Reserve's macro monetary policy path and the reignition of AI bubble concerns.
As a result, Nvidia's stock price continues its short-term correction, recording $203.31 as of the close on July 17, 2026.
According to Daily Stock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index, the Nasdaq market is currently indicating a "Fear" (37.1) stage.
The domestic KOSPI market has entered the "Extreme Fear" (12.4) zone, dampening overall investor sentiment for tech stocks.
With the USD/KRW exchange rate rising to the 1,490.00 won level, adding macroeconomic pressure, Nvidia's stock direction depends on tangible order achievements of its next-generation architectures, the 'Blackwell' and 'Rubin' platforms.
Financial Analysis
Nvidia's previous FY2027 Q1 earnings (announced on May 20, 2026) excellently exceeded market expectations, proving robust infrastructure demand.
Total revenue recorded $81.6 billion, an 85% surge year-on-year (YoY), driven primarily by data center revenue of $7.52 billion (noting the scale below).
In particular, the networking segment revenue grew 199% YoY to $14.8 billion, solidifying its position as a new growth engine outside of GPUs.
Nvidia's total revenue guidance for FY2027 Q2 is set at $91.0 billion (±2%), and the market anticipates data center revenue will easily break through the $80.0 billion mark.
| Category (FY2027 Q1) | Financial Figure ($ Billion) | YoY Growth Rate | QoQ Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Total Revenue** | 81.6 | +85% | +20% |
| **Data Center Revenue** | 75.2 | +92% | +21% |
| └ *Data Center Compute* | 60.4 | +77% | +18% |
| └ *Data Center Networking* | 14.8 | +199% | +35% |
| **Edge Computing** | 6.4 | +29% | +10% |
| **Q2 Total Revenue Guidance** | 910 (±2%) | - | +12% |
Valuation
Due to the stock correction, Nvidia's Forward P/E has declined to around 30x, which is a fairly reasonable level compared to historical peaks.
This implies that the valuation burden has been significantly relieved as the stock price rise slowed down relative to its rapidly expanding earnings capability.
In addition, Nvidia's board approved an additional $80.0 billion share buyback program on May 18, on top of the remaining authorization.
With this, they have secured a total shareholder return capacity of $118.5 billion, firmly establishing downside support.
However, for multiples to re-rate in the future, the company must clearly demonstrate to the market its long-term Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) reduction effects in the data center division, rather than just delivering simple earnings beats.
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202607/gen_6a5ac38d586c12.96370787.png]
Professional & Institutional Analysis
Major global investment banks on Wall Street maintain a positive fundamental view on Nvidia but advise caution regarding short-term volatility.
Goldman Sachs projected that global AI computing infrastructure spending will expand to about $1.13 trillion by 2031, with Nvidia maintaining its dominant position in this market for a long period.
Some institutions, including Melius Research, have optimistically suggested a long-term target price of up to $400, based on share buyback effects and increasing demand for next-generation chips.
Conversely, some market experts point out that risks such as a complete restriction on the Chinese market (assuming 0% Chinese revenue in guidance) and potential capital expenditure (CAPEX) adjustments by hyperscaler customers must be kept in mind.
Risk Factors
The most direct risk stems from Chinese startup Moonshot AI's recent announcement of a low-cost, high-performance model that approaches the performance of top-tier US AI models.
This low-cost token competition raises concerns that it could slow down the large-scale hardware infrastructure spending velocity of big tech companies (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, etc.).
Additionally, multiple contraction pressure across tech stocks remains valid due to the US 10-year Treasury yield staying high and macroeconomic environment shifts.
Furthermore, if packaging production capacity bottlenecks at foundry partners like TSMC persist, it may be difficult to deliver products on time even if demand exists, risking missing guidance.
Investment Perspective Summary
While Nvidia's investment appeal is shaken by short-term macro volatility and caution over AI skepticism, the growth rate of its business essence remains unrivaled.
Whether data center revenue successfully breaks through $80.0 billion in the Q2 earnings release scheduled for August 26, alongside the full-scale mass production of the Blackwell platform, will be a key milestone for future stock recovery.
Consequently, the current correction phase could be a process of healthily cooling down overheated multiples. As long as big tech CAPEX guidelines with long-term spending plans are maintained, the conditional upward scenario remains valid.
Investment Checklist
Q1. When is Nvidia's next earnings release date, and what is the key watchpoint?
Nvidia's FY2027 Q2 earnings release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. The key is whether it meets the market consensus of $91.0 billion in total revenue and whether data center revenue settles at $80.0 billion.
Q2. What is the primary external reason for the recent stock correction?
Along with the tech-heavy capital rotation, concerns that the emergence of low-cost AI models (e.g., Moonshot AI) could slow down big tech's AI infrastructure CAPEX have played a role.
Q3. What is the current status of Nvidia's shareholder return policy?
Nvidia approved a new $80.0 billion share buyback program in May 2026, which, combined with the existing remaining balance, gives it a rich buyback capacity of approximately $118.5 billion.
Q4. Is the risk of revenue restrictions in the Chinese market reflected in the guidance?
Yes, the guidance provided by Nvidia is a conservative guideline that officially assumes 'zero' data center compute revenue from the Chinese market.
Q5. What is the long-term outlook for global AI infrastructure spending?
According to major institutions like Goldman Sachs, global AI computing spending is expected to continue steady annual growth, reaching about $1.13 trillion by 2031.