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Today, in the midst of a historic bull market that broke through the KOSDAQ 1161 level, we will closely examine the PSR valuation of KOSDAQ150 large growth stocks and the polarization phenomenon of small and mid-cap stocks.
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Core Summary
As the KOSDAQ index closed at 1161.13, a rally in large growth stocks centered on robots and automation is continuing due to synchronization with the NASDAQ (26343.97).
The polarization of valuation and supply/demand between stocks included in the KOSDAQ150 and KOSDAQ Small (small and mid-cap) is deepening.
While retail investor deposits and margin balances are flowing in, program trading by foreign and institutional investors is driving the index's direction.
However, we must thoroughly guard against the risk of gap-downs and profit-taking due to the high exchange rate reaching 1514.70 KRW and the high-interest-rate environment.
Current Situation Summary
As of the market close on May 25, 2026, the KOSDAQ index recorded 1161.13, maintaining solid upward momentum.
On the same day, KOSPI closed at 7847.71 and NASDAQ at 26343.97, showing that the global tech-heavy market flavor is strongly reflected in the domestic stock market.
Currently, the market's supply, demand, and liquidity are showing a concentration phenomenon focused on top-tier market-cap growth stocks included in the KOSDAQ150 index.
As foreign and institutional program buying flows mainly into leading stocks, customer deposits and margin loan balances are also moving in tandem with large-cap momentum.
On the other hand, small and mid-cap stocks included in the KOSDAQ Small index appear relatively marginalized from liquidity supply.
Because of this, the price gap between large caps and small/mid-caps has widened, making it much more difficult to manage returns in this stock-picking market.
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Financial Analysis
Robots and advanced component growth stocks within the KOSDAQ150 are rapidly increasing their order backlogs, boosted by the recent expansion of global corporate AI investments and domestic policy momentum.
Many leading theme stocks are driving top-line revenue growth by providing software fusion solutions beyond simple hardware sales.
However, due to aggressive R&D expenditures and facility investments, many companies have limited short-term operating profit margin improvements.
While profit fundamentals are not yet fully confirmed, the speed of revenue growth, rather than the scale of the surplus, is being evaluated as a core indicator for these companies.
Therefore, when analyzing financial statements, one should first check the cash-generating ability and revenue growth rate rather than immediate net profit.
Since high premiums can rapidly shrink the moment signs of growth slowdown appear, whether revenue guidance is achieved in every quarterly earnings release is crucial.
Valuation
To evaluate the value of early-stage high-growth companies whose profits have not yet fully materialized, the current KOSDAQ market is actively utilizing Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR) and EV/EBITDA indicators.
In particular, the average PSR of leading stocks in future advanced industry themes like robots has risen to the level seen during past leading stock rallies, placing them at the center of valuation justification debates.
The KOSDAQ150 index, centered on large-cap stocks, is receiving a high premium compared to the market by pricing in future growth value.
Conversely, small and mid-cap stocks in the KOSDAQ Small index remain at relatively low PSR and EV/EBITDA valuations, maximizing the gap between the indices.
| Category | KOSDAQ150 (Large/Growth-centric) | KOSDAQ Small (Small/Mid-Cap-centric) |
|---|---|---|
| **Key Valuation Indicators** | High PSR, High EV/EBITDA | Low PSR, Relative Undervaluation |
| **Supply/Demand Trends** | Foreign/Institutional Program Buying Concentrated | Retail-driven Trading, Lack of Liquidity |
| **Core Momentum** | NASDAQ Synchronization, Global Policy Themes | Individual Corporate Earnings, Trickle-down Expectation |
| **Risk Factors** | Overvaluation Controversy, Profit-taking Volume | Low Liquidity, Prolonged Marginalization |
The current ultra-strong dollar environment of 1514.70 KRW could increase the cost of sales for companies with a high proportion of imported raw materials, exacerbating the valuation burden.
Ultimately, to justify a high PSR, substantial fundamental proof through EV/EBITDA improvement is essential.
Expert·Institutional Analysis
In the securities industry, the recent KOSDAQ uptrend is analyzed as a premium rally of KOSDAQ150 large growth stocks synchronized with the NASDAQ's strength.
There are positive assessments that leading robot and next-generation IT stocks, which align with global mega-trends, are rationalizing their high valuations through expectations of future earnings growth.
However, some warn that if expectations run too far ahead of a company's intrinsic value, harsh volatility may appear even with minor macroeconomic shocks.
For companies unable to prove growth with actual numbers, there is a high possibility of experiencing sharp stock price corrections as investors' disappointment selling pours out in the short term.
Furthermore, institutional investors point to whether domestic policy momentum directly leads to actual orders as the most critical variable.
There is also continuous cautious sentiment that the moment the growth story is damaged, the inflowing program buying could instantly turn into massive selling.
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Risk Factors
The biggest macroeconomic risks surrounding the current stock market are the KRW/USD exchange rate reaching 1514.70 and concerns over prolonged global high-interest rates.
Due to the nature of growth stocks, a high-interest rate environment, which increases the discount rate for future value, continuously exerts downward pressure on PSR valuations.
The high margin loan balances accumulated in overvalued stocks within the KOSDAQ150 are also pointed out as a potential detonator that can increase short-term volatility.
If the trend reverses and profit-taking volumes emerge, there is a risk of gap-downs centered on low-liquidity stocks, triggering margin calls for investors.
As the concentration of supply and demand in the market is extreme, the possibility of the entire KOSDAQ index falling together when major leading theme stocks falter cannot be ruled out.
Therefore, rather than blind chase buying, defensive risk management centered on stocks with low valuation burdens and sufficient liquidity is required.
Investment Perspective Summary
The current KOSDAQ market is showing spectacular top-line growth centered on the KOSDAQ150, based on abundant liquidity and synchronization with the NASDAQ.
However, behind the spectacular index rise, a dilemma coexists: the marginalization of small and mid-cap stocks and the overvaluation controversy of some theme stocks.
Looking at Daily Stock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index data, one can objectively gauge whether the market is overheated.
The KOSPI Fear & Greed Index is currently Neutral (57.3), showing a somewhat calmed trend compared to Neutral (58.9) 1 week ago, Greed (64.8) 1 month ago, and Greed (63.4) 3 months ago.
The NASDAQ Fear & Greed Index also recorded Neutral (58.6), stepping down from Greed (63.2) 1 week ago, Greed (68.5) 1 month ago, and Greed (66.8) 3 months ago, indicating an easing of the overheating phase.
Considering this neutral market sentiment, one must objectively evaluate individual companies' revenue growth and EV/EBITDA improvements rather than simply following themes.
Keeping in mind the possibility of a supply/demand trickle-down effect to KOSDAQ Small, a strategy of selecting marginalized stocks with high valuation appeal relative to earnings could be advantageous.
Investor Checkpoint Q&A
Q1. What is the difference between the KOSDAQ150 index and the overall KOSDAQ index?
The KOSDAQ150 is a core index composed of the top 150 large-cap blue-chip stocks in market capitalization and liquidity that represent the KOSDAQ market.
On the other hand, the overall KOSDAQ index includes all small and mid-cap stocks, so when supply and demand are concentrated on large growth stocks as they are now, the return gap between the two indices can widen significantly.
Q2. Why is PSR mainly used instead of PER to evaluate growth stocks?
Early-stage high-growth companies or robot theme stocks often fail to generate meaningful net profit yet due to massive R&D investments.
Therefore, instead of profit (the standard for PER), the Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR), which intuitively shows top-line revenue growth, is used to evaluate the company's market dominance and future value.
Q3. What is the impact of the current KRW/USD exchange rate of 1514.70 on KOSDAQ companies?
A high exchange rate acts as a positive factor for companies with a high proportion of overseas exports by enhancing price competitiveness and providing foreign exchange gains.
However, for advanced manufacturing and component companies highly dependent on imported raw materials, there is a risk of worsening profitability due to surging costs of goods sold.
Q4. How should program trading trends be checked and interpreted?
Program trading, flowing in as basket trades by foreign and institutional investors, is the supply and demand agent that determines the short-term direction of KOSDAQ150 large-cap stocks.
It can be checked in the trading trend menu of HTS or MTS, and if net program buying continues, it can be interpreted that the stock's upward momentum is strong.
Q5. What should be noted when investing in KOSDAQ Small stocks?
Small and mid-cap stocks have smaller base trading volumes compared to large caps, so there is a low-liquidity risk where stock price volatility is maximized even with minor bad news or supply/demand outflows.
Therefore, it is important to check whether the margin loan ratio is abnormally high and to adjust the average unit price and weight through thorough split buying.