Hello, I am a professional writer for Daily Stock.
Today, we will focus on the new release momentum and valuation of K-game stocks in the second half of the year, which are gaining attention as the KOSDAQ secures its position above the 1100 mark.
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202605/gen_6a0ebc2ba43467.13986716.png]
Core Summary
As the KOSDAQ index closed at 1105.97, spreading warmth across growth stocks, the momentum of game stocks that have released global blockbusters is being highlighted.
Pearl Abyss's 'Crimson Desert' has created a box office sensation, firing the starting signal for the valuation re-rating of game stocks.
In the second half of the year, large companies like Kakao Games and Nexon Games have a tightly packed calendar of major new releases.
Amid the Nasdaq coupling atmosphere favorable for growth stock investments, a performance-based sorting of the wheat from the chaff is expected to begin in earnest.
Current Situation Summary
As of today, May 21, 2026, the KOSDAQ index closed at 1105.97 and the KOSPI at 7815.59, showing a solid trend in the Korean stock market.
Looking at Daily Stock's proprietary Fear & Greed Index, the Nasdaq Fear & Greed is currently at Greed (60.9), maintaining the tone of Greed (65) from 1 week ago, Greed (67.6) from 1 month ago, and Greed (66.2) from 3 months ago, suggesting a favorable global tech stock sentiment.
On the other hand, the KOSPI Fear & Greed is currently Neutral (57.9), showing a somewhat calmed and differentiated sentiment compared to Greed (65) 1 week ago, Greed (60.2) 1 month ago, and Neutral (57.3) 3 months ago.
In this supply and demand environment, retail deposits and margin loan balances are flocking to fundamental improvement stocks within the KOSDAQ150, while foreign program buying is observed flowing into the leading game theme stocks.
Financial Analysis
Pearl Abyss led a massive turnaround to a surplus in the first quarter as 'Crimson Desert', released last March, recorded cumulative sales of 5 million copies in just 26 days.
Although the current market price and detailed confirmed earnings are unconfirmed (based on the latest brokerage estimates), an earnings surprise of around KRW 433.5 billion in revenue and KRW 254.7 billion in operating profit is expected.
Kakao Games left a painful earnings record with a first-quarter operating loss (-KRW 25.5 billion) due to the downward stabilization of its existing flagship mobile titles and the absence of major new releases.
However, it is aiming for a strong earnings turnaround by deploying a large PC and console lineup in the second half of the year.
| Company Name | Key New Release Momentum (As of 2026) | Platform | Q1 Key Financial Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Pearl Abyss** | Crimson Desert (Released March 20) | PC, Console | Strong earnings surprise estimated driven by global blockbuster success |
| **Kakao Games** | Odin Q (Q2), ArcheAge Chronicles (Q3) | PC, Mobile, Console | Recorded a Q1 deficit (-KRW 25.5 billion) due to new release vacuum |
| **Nexon Games** | Multiple new lineup reveals planned for 2026 | Mobile, PC | Phase of defending live game revenue and preparing for next-title momentum |
[Image: /stdaily/uploads/202605/gen_6a0ebc420fa344.75174894.png]
Valuation
KOSDAQ game stocks are restructuring their business models from a mobile-centric mass-production model to a AAA-class packaged game sales model targeting Western markets.
Accordingly, rather than a simple Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR) measure, a valuation approach centered on Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EV/EBITDA), which is comparable to top global companies, is gaining persuasion.
Pearl Abyss has currently entered a re-rating phase at a Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER) level of 15 times for the future, driven by upward revisions in earnings estimates following the success of 'Crimson Desert'.
However, there is a coexisting view that the upper end of the short-term valuation may be limited due to concerns about the profit gap until the release of its next title 'DokeV' (expected in 2028).
On the other hand, Kakao Games has absolute valuation appeal as its Price-to-Book Ratio (PBR) remains near the historical bottom of 1.5 times.
If institutional passive supply and demand flow into large-cap KOSDAQ150 stocks compared to KOSDAQ Small in the future, an elastic gap-filling rebound can be expected.
Expert and Institutional Analysis
Major brokerage research centers diagnose that the structural margin rates of game stocks will improve, coupled with expectations for the government's KOSDAQ revitalization policies and the global trend of lowering app market fees.
In the current market where the coupling with the Nasdaq index has strengthened, the dominant assessment is that successful settlement in the console-centric Western market is the key variable to prevent the long-term departure of foreign funds.
However, investors should always keep in mind the possibility of foreign and institutional program profit-taking for stocks that have achieved record short-term performance.
Institutions warn that the absence of new releases for 1 to 2 years following short-term success could be a factor that increases future stock price volatility.
Risk Factors
The most notable macroeconomic risk is exchange rate volatility, with the USD/KRW exchange rate soaring to nearly 1,505.80 KRW as of May 21.
Game companies with a high proportion of overseas sales can benefit from foreign exchange gains, but from a foreign investor's perspective, concerns about foreign exchange losses could trigger a supply-demand exodus from the KOSDAQ market as a whole.
Furthermore, if game release schedules are suddenly delayed or if development (labor) costs rise more than expected, there is a constant risk that corporate fundamentals will be severely damaged.
If it coincides with a low-liquidity market, even a slight waver in initial indicators can be accompanied by a severe gap down, so blind optimism should be guarded against.
Investment Perspective
Entering the KOSDAQ 1100 era, the game sector has moved beyond simple thematic rotational trading and entered a phase of sorting the wheat from the chaff where fundamentals must be proven with earnings and numbers.
Investors should pay attention to the earnings turnaround of companies with visible hit success, but a strategy that also reflects the risks brought about by the momentum gap of upcoming titles in their portfolios is necessary.
Therefore, rather than preemptive buying relying on 'simple pre-release expectations', a trend-following approach based on confirmed data such as global concurrent users or sales volume may be advantageous.
Since stocks that have recently shown a concentration of retail deposits are highly volatile, a conservative perspective with strict weight management is recommended.
Investor Checkpoint Q&A
Q1. How should we interpret the supply and demand for game stocks amid the KOSDAQ surpassing 1105?
Retail and foreign funds, recently concentrated in secondary batteries or biotech, are partially moving to game stocks with Q1 earnings surprises and new release calendar momentum, assisting rotational trading within the market.
Q2. How should we interpret and respond to the Daily Stock Fear & Greed Index?
Currently, KOSPI Fear & Greed is Neutral (57.9) and Nasdaq Fear & Greed is Greed (60.9), an environment somewhat favorable to tech and growth stocks with high Nasdaq correlation.
Although global tech sentiment is positive, the overall supply and demand in the domestic market are cautious, so it is necessary to approach mainly stocks with a solid global revenue base.
Q3. What is the ripple effect of Pearl Abyss's 'Crimson Desert' global success on other KOSDAQ game stocks?
It left a powerful precedent that Korean packaged games can also achieve short-term sales of millions of copies in the home of consoles.
This is interpreted as laying the groundwork for large cross-platform new releases by Kakao Games or Nexon Games to also receive upgraded multiples (valuation metrics) in the future.
Q4. Does the exchange rate entering the 1,500 won range act as bad news for KOSDAQ game stocks' earnings?
For companies centered on the domestic market, it could act as an inflation burden, such as marketing costs due to rising prices.
However, for companies with global releases primarily settled in dollars, it can provide a high foreign exchange gain contribution at settlement, giving them defensive characteristics.
Q5. What is the most important indicator to watch when investing in game stock new release momentum?
For new packaged games, initial Steam reviews (Metacritic scores) or SteamDB concurrent user numbers become core indicators that immediately determine corporate valuation.
Simultaneously, daily foreign and institutional program net buying trends must be checked to constantly monitor for supply-demand departure due to profit-taking.