Hello, this is Daily Stock. We analyze the future strategy of Qualcomm and the possibility of a new big deal that could change the landscape of the global semiconductor market.
Key Takeaways
* Foreign media reports indicate that Qualcomm is actively pursuing negotiations during trading hours to acquire Tenstorrent, an AI semiconductor startup led by Jim Keller, for $8 billion to $10 billion.
* If this acquisition is successful, mobile-centric Qualcomm will secure powerful momentum to diversify its portfolio into the server and edge AI markets.
* In particular, it is expected to significantly reduce its reliance on the monopolistic ARM architecture and preempt a strategic stronghold to lead the open-source RISC-V alliance.
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Current Market Summary
* According to global media outlets such as The Information, Qualcomm has recently been in concrete negotiations for a potential acquisition of Tenstorrent valued at $8 billion to $10 billion.
* Tenstorrent is a startup led by "chip design legend" Jim Keller, possessing high energy-efficient RISC-V-based AI accelerator and processor design capabilities.
* Currently, the Nasdaq Fear and Greed Index is in neutral territory (40.9), and the KOSPI Fear and Greed Index is also neutral (52.9), showing a general wait-and-see market trend.
* For reference, as of today's trading hours (2026-06-16), major domestic and international indices are moving around KOSPI 8733.61, KOSDAQ 1039.27, Nasdaq 26683.94, and the USD/KRW exchange rate is at 1515.50.
* The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) is fluctuating around 4.47% to 4.48% based on the latest checked values, while the Dollar Index (DXY) is stabilizing near 99.6.
* The Volatility Index (VIX) has also come down from the 23 level recorded during the recent semiconductor sector plunge, stabilizing around 16 to 17.
* This acquisition rumor could serve as a new guide to drive Qualcomm's long-term growth at a time when the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and the Nasdaq 100 Index are undergoing corrections.
Financial Analysis
* Qualcomm achieved revenue of $10.60 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65 for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (announced in April), both exceeding market consensus.
* In addition, the Board of Directors approved a new $20 billion share buyback program to continue returning value to shareholders, adding to the existing limit.
* The prevailing analysis suggests that since the company's stable cash flow (QTL) centered on mobile APs and patent licensing is supportive, a large-scale capital input of around $10 billion is manageable in the long run.
| Category (Based on Q2 FY2026 & Latest Checked Values) | Reported Figure | Market Consensus | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Quarterly Revenue** | $10.60 billion | $10.59 billion | Beat |
| **Earnings Per Share (EPS)** | $2.65 | $2.56 | Beat |
| **New Share Buyback Limit** | $20 billion additional approval | - | Enhanced Shareholder Return |
| **Price-to-Earnings (P/E Ratio, TTM)** | Approx. 22.8x ~ 23.0x | - | Reflecting latest stock price |
| **US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y)** | 4.47% ~ 4.48% | - | Macro multiple influencer |
Table: Summary of Qualcomm's Key Financial Metrics and Macro Indicators (As of 2026-06-16 during trading & latest checked values)
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Valuation
* Qualcomm's stock price is currently trading near $220.81 (based on the latest checked value), and its 12-month Forward P/E ratio is around 23.1x.
* This represents a valuation appeal, undergoing a price correction of over 15% compared to its historical high of $259.92 reached in late May.
* Compared to Qualcomm's intrinsic value evaluated by the market (GF Value of $175.55), it is still interpreted as being in a premium range.
* However, if Tenstorrent's proprietary RISC-V design IP is integrated into its systems, it creates a multiple expansion scenario that will improve operating margins in the mid-to-long term by reducing ARM licensing costs.
Expert and Institutional Analysis
* Major global financial institutions, including JPMorgan, predict that this could serve as strong momentum for a stock rebound ahead of Qualcomm's Investor Day scheduled for June 24.
* According to Morningstar's analysis, the rapid transition from leveraging its high market share in smartphone chips to expanding into PC, automotive, IoT, and data center chip segments is evaluated encouragingly.
* However, the fact that Apple is increasing the adoption rate of its own baseband (modem) chips in mobile devices, and Samsung Electronics is strengthening its own chip development (such as Exynos), could remain negative factors for Qualcomm's existing mobile revenue.
Risk Factors
* Acquisition Cost Burden and Potential Deal Failure: Since Tenstorrent's valuation is being discussed at $10.0 billion, financing risks and the possibility of deal termination before the actual contract is finalized could trigger stock price volatility.
* ARM Licensing Legal Dispute: The uncertainty of the ongoing lawsuit with ARM Holdings over the Nuvia core architecture license has not been completely resolved, leaving upward pressure on royalty costs.
* CAPEX Investment and AI Monetization Delay: If the massive infrastructure investments by Big Tech hyperscalers do not translate immediately into market value creation, there is an ongoing risk that the semiconductor cycle could rapidly cool down.
* Macro Interest Rate Upward Pressure: The US 10-year Treasury yield is holding firm near 4.5%, presenting a macroeconomic headwind that limits the multiples of growth-oriented Nasdaq 100 indices.
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Investment Perspective Summary
* Qualcomm is decisively shifting its stage to the automotive and data center AI fields through its solid cash cow in the mobile sector.
* The rumored acquisition of Tenstorrent would serve as the ultimate stepping stone for Qualcomm to break free from its chronic reliance on ARM's licensing dominance and preempt the next-generation computing ecosystem based on RISC-V.
* Although short-term macro uncertainties and friction in the M&A negotiation process may cause price fluctuations, successful transformation could make it a pioneering example of portfolio diversification.
Investor Checklist Q&A
* Q1. What is the key strategic background for Qualcomm pursuing the acquisition of Tenstorrent?
* It is to acquire technology in high-performance servers and edge data center AI chips beyond the mobile market, and to absorb the core design architecture capabilities of chip legend Jim Keller.
* Q2. What is the expected acquisition size of Tenstorrent and its financial impact?
* According to foreign media reports, the proposed negotiation price is in the range of $8 billion to $10 billion, which may impose short-term financial pressure considering Qualcomm's cash and cash equivalents.
* Q3. Why is the adoption of the RISC-V architecture advantageous for Qualcomm?
* Utilizing open-source-based RISC-V allows Qualcomm to break away from the design dominance of ARM, with whom it has engaged in a long-standing proprietary licensing dispute, and build its own ecosystem.
* Q4. How did Qualcomm's most recent quarterly earnings perform?
* In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, Qualcomm proved the defensive strength of its business portfolio's profitability, achieving revenue of $10.60 billion and EPS of $2.65, beating market expectations.
* Q5. Are there any key upcoming dates to watch from an investment perspective?
* It is highly likely that guidance regarding data center expansion plans and the status of the Tenstorrent acquisition will be provided during Qualcomm's Investor Day scheduled for June 24.